Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd69a…d57f other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 366d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$317 (+2%) realized +$307 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 36L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 366d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$21
sports 45% +$3,908
crypto 2% −$354
politics 1% −$221
culture 0% −$33
world 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +67.7% +51.7% 67% 67% +61.1%
≤30d 29 -11.6% -20.1% 34% 34% +37.9%
≤90d 29 -11.6% -20.1% 34% 34% +37.9%
all 52 -31.3% -37.9% 31% 31% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 31% +10.9%
10% -43.8% 27% +0.2%
15% -49.2% 25% -9.4%
20% -54.2% 23% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -61% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$376 vs −$76 · ×4.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 76
History coverage366d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $259 $256 −$4 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $675 −$22 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND W Jun 26 $100 −$14 -14%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $956 +$644 +67%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U Jun 25 $512 +$1,633 +319%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 Jun 24 $437 +$504 +115%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,209 +$405 +34%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao Jun 21 $154 +$260 +169%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $75 +$64 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $104 −$32 -31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19 Jun 20 $130 +$27 +21%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States win on 20 Jun 20 $80 +$111 +139%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $82 −$64 -78%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $144 −$6 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $50 −$30 -61%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $19 −$18 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will England win on 2026- Jun 17 $50 +$81 +161%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$93 +93%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $393 −$385 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $114 −$112 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $500 +$185 +37%
Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $535 +$372 +70%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $499 +$541 +108%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $5,332 +$868 +16%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $202 −$202 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 9? Dec 09 $194 −$194 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 9 Dec 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Dec 09 $33 −$33 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 09 $130 −$130 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Dec 09 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Dec 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-10-26? Oct 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18? Oct 19 $200 +$112 +56%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? Oct 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $128 +$123 +96%
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker? Sep 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? Aug 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 65¢ $653 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 69¢ $654 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 13¢ $89 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND W SELL 14¢ $86 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $134 4h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Mohamed Salah: BUY 8¢ $50 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 63¢ $187 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $541 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 47¢ $500 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $194 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND W BUY 16¢ $100 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $264 14h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $956 40h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U BUY 23¢ $512 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: BUY 29¢ $409 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 46¢ $437 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY 30¢ $306 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $257 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England w BUY 47¢ $609 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde BUY 14¢ $20 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 73¢ $936 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: Bo BUY 10¢ $18 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 74¢ $1,209 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 53¢ $256 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY 20¢ $154 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao SELL 48¢ $414 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 39¢ $242 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 62¢ $122 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $48 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $47 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.50 · official $1,580.17 · 131 history records