Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd698…b387 world 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate30%23W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 25% +$1
sports 17% −$11
politics 12% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$2
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 72 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.4%
all 77 -1.4% -10.8% 30% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 1% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage534d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1326%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $130 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $143 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $112 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $85 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $38 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $108 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $72 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $73 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $74 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $34 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $68 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $11 $0 +1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $185 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $36 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $69 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $19 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $24 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $43 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $43 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $0 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $33 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $37 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $18 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.50 · official $39.13 (match) · 358 history records