Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D6 0xd697…6e0c sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$10 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%32W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$16
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$16
sports 4% +$4
politics 0% −$3
world 0% $0
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -6.0% -14.9% 38% 38% -11.4%
≤30d 22 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 50% +11.3%
≤90d 22 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 50% +11.3%
all 54 -7.2% -16.1% 59% 41% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 41% -10.1%
10% -24.1% 35% -18.7%
15% -31.4% 22% -26.6%
20% -38.2% 15% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses32 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage529d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Maria Sakkari 63¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Terence Atmane 63¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $2 +$9 +415%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Wuning: Shiyu Ye vs Anchisa Chanta Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $1 +$1 +139%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $1 +$1 +50%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $1 $0 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Braden Shick Jun 06 $6 +$3 +57%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$8 +165%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $6 +$2 +35%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez May 19 $1 $0 +12%
Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert May 19 $1 $0 +40%
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? Feb 03 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Leagu Feb 03 $3 +$1 +24%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Dec 15 $2 +$1 +35%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Nov 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 26 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? Oct 26 $2 −$1 -64%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 08 $1 −$1 -100%
MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 03 $1 $0 +4%
Rabby airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 03 $1 $0 +4%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Jul 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 21 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas to Jul 15 $1 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jul 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Jul 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "NATO" 15+ times during his NATO speech? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jul 15 $1 $0 +4%
Rabby airdrop in Q2 2025? Jun 25 $1,743 −$2 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Jun 23 $2 $0 +13%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jun 23 $1 $0 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $2 $0 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +37%
Rabby airdrop in Q1 2025? Mar 13 $2 $0 +2%
OpenSea airdrop before April? Feb 26 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 63¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 58¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 48¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 63¢ $2 1h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 5d
ITF Wuning: Shiyu Ye vs Anchisa Chanta BUY Shiyu Ye 35¢ $1 5d
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria BUY Segundo Goity Zapico 12¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 18¢ $1 5d
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax BUY Florent Bax 38¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 20¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel SELL Hanne Vandewinkel 69¢ $2 5d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 28¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $1 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek BUY Dayana Yastremska 67¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen BUY Greet Minnen 66¢ $1 6d
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Katie Volynets 58¢ $1 6d
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Braden Shick BUY Liam Draxl 63¢ $6 9d
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 12¢ $1 9d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Granollers/Zeballos 51¢ $6 10d
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 13d
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $6 26d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 26d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 93¢ $1 26d
Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 90¢ $1 26d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 82¢ $1 26d
Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 63¢ $1 26d
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov BUY Karen Khachanov 73¢ $5 26d
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov BUY Karen Khachanov 76¢ $1 26d
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.34 · official $1.34 (match) · 101 history records