Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D6 0xd697…6cd3 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$59 (+5%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$254
other 16% −$189
crypto 4% +$5
politics 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +7.7% -2.6% 50% 50% -16.7%
≤30d 11 -1.0% -10.5% 45% 45% -9.2%
≤90d 40 +14.6% +3.7% 45% 45% -5.7%
all 40 +14.6% +3.7% 45% 45% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 45% -5.7%
10% -6.2% 45% -14.8%
15% -15.3% 45% -23.0%
20% -23.6% 42% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$32 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage58d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 58¢ 57¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$12 +119%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $103 +$117 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $48 +$62 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $83 −$82 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $20 +$22 +109%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 22 $80 −$38 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $20 +$21 +101%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 20 $96 −$94 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $51 +$81 +158%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 17 $41 +$102 +249%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers May 12 $20 +$19 +93%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $20 +$91 +442%
Beijing Ducks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers May 06 $20 +$7 +37%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $20 +$59 +291%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 04 $10 +$10 +97%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $20 −$20 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $24 +$57 +237%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 58¢ $45 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $101 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $103 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $48 30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 41¢ $83 33d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks $1 37d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 20¢ $10 37d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 30¢ $8 37d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 46¢ $20 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 37d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 51¢ $20 37d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 47¢ $20 37d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks SELL Beijing Ducks 85¢ $40 37d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 42¢ $20 38d
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions 15¢ $5 38d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $20 38d
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions 54¢ $20 38d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 21¢ $14 39d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 22¢ $20 39d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 22¢ $20 39d
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Beijing Ducks 45¢ $20 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.62 · official $43.62 (match) · 74 history records