Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd696…8a49
sports · 341 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
−$1,138,997 -52%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,139,432 · open +$436
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 10 History 713 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,042,342
7 days−$887,880
14 days−$877,341
30 days−$828,835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 54¢ 100¢ $37,800 $70,000 +$32,200 (+85%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 77¢ 78¢ $18,064 $18,278 +$213 (+1%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Under 50¢ 100¢ $1,346 $2,692 +$1,346 (+100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 47¢ 100¢ $1,195 $2,543 +$1,348 (+113%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 68¢ $1,377 $1,341 −$36 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 49¢ 62¢ $779 $977 +$199 (+26%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 53¢ 52¢ $531 $526 −$5 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 67¢ $508 $508 +$0 (+0%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 32¢ $340 $348 +$8 (+2%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $227 $230 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 43¢ 48¢ $162 $181 +$19 (+12%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 74¢ 74¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 52¢ 52¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Korea Republic 92¢ 93¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 47¢ $4,943 $0 −$4,943 (-100%)
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Rockets 47¢ $2,918 $0 −$2,918 (-100%)
Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5 No 48¢ $1,079 $0 −$1,079 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Boston Red Sox 58¢ $185 $0 −$185 (-100%)
ASB Classic: Alycia Parks vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Parks 41¢ $218 $0 −$218 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Mavericks Mavericks 46¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Thunder 49¢ $3,784 $0 −$3,784 (-100%)
Lafayette Leopards vs. Colgate Raiders Colgate Raiders 81¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Spread: Bucks (-1.5) Bucks 50¢ $1,388 $0 −$1,388 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants Yes 50¢ $385 $0 −$385 (-100%)
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5 No 37¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Jun 12 $2,918 −$2,918 -100%
Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 13.5 Jun 12 $1,079 −$1,079 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $185 −$185 -100%
ASB Classic: Alycia Parks vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 12 $218 −$218 -100%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Jun 12 $3,784 −$3,784 -100%
Lafayette Leopards vs. Colgate Raiders Jun 12 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,388 −$1,388 -100%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5 Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
AHL: Hershey Bears vs. Lehigh Valley Phantoms Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Spread: Austin Peay Governors (-4.5) Jun 12 $1,923 −$1,923 -100%
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5 Jun 12 $328 −$328 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jun 12 $6,561 −$6,561 -100%
Nets vs. Knicks Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
Sabres vs. Jets Jun 12 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5) Jun 12 $9,504 −$9,504 -100%
Spread: Senators (-1.5) Jun 12 $5,460 −$5,460 -100%
Knicks vs. Mavericks Jun 12 $2,412 −$2,412 -100%
Avalanche vs. Jets Jun 12 $5,794 −$5,794 -100%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $816 −$816 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Janice Tjen Jun 12 $2,963 −$2,963 -100%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Jun 12 $5,191 −$5,191 -100%
Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $983 −$983 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,334 −$1,334 -100%
Islanders vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $597 −$597 -100%
Spread: Miami Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,073 −$1,073 -100%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Siena Saints Jun 12 $560 −$560 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Jun 12 $2,783 −$2,783 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Jun 12 $987 −$987 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic Jun 12 $347 −$347 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $9,870 −$9,870 -100%
Spread: North Texas (-6.5) Jun 12 $455 −$455 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Stars Jun 12 $727 −$727 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-2.5) Jun 12 $264 −$264 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pacers Jun 12 $350 −$350 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Jun 12 $194 −$194 -100%
Flames vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1,908 −$1,908 -100%
Spread: Idaho Vandals (-3.5) Jun 12 $774 −$774 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Jun 12 $2,685 −$2,685 -100%
Predators vs. Blues Jun 12 $79 −$79 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 12 $18,810 −$18,810 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5 Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Receiving Yards O/U 90.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $22,002 −$22,002 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 12 $3,080 −$3,080 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,955 −$1,955 -100%
Miami vs. Ohio State: O/U 40.5 Jun 12 $508 −$508 -100%
Steelers vs. Lions Jun 12 $8,126 −$8,126 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$61,681
other 0% +$763
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 79¢ $2,400 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $3 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $380 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $1,674 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $222 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $161 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $328 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $33 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $100 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $335 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $84 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $15 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $179 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 77¢ $335 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 76¢ $21 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 76¢ $53 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 76¢ $3 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 76¢ $38 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 76¢ $32 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 76¢ $317 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 76¢ $380 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 76¢ $7,246 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 76¢ $39 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 76¢ $73 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 65¢ $1,344 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 65¢ $11 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 65¢ $35 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 65¢ $130 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 65¢ $93 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 493 -86.0% -87.3% 8% 7% -56.7%
≤30d 628 -59.1% -63.0% 21% 21% -43.0%
≤90d 713 -53.9% -58.3% 24% 24% -43.6%
all 713 -53.9% -58.3% 24% 24% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover70.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.3% 24% -43.6%
10% -62.3% 23% -49.0%
15% ← realistic here -65.9% 21% -53.9%
20% -69.3% 20% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97,788.81 · official $97,788.81 (match) · 3500 history records