Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd691…0255 world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$9
other 20% −$10
politics 17% +$1
sports 10% −$3
economics 2% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 22% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 23 -5.7% -14.7% 22% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 70 -1.8% -11.1% 33% 1% -9.3%
all 76 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 4% -9.7%
10% -23.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage525d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 43¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+117%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $229 +$7 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $77 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $39 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $186 +$5 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $78 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $157 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $78 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $8 −$2 -25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $90 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $43 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $8 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $6 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $51 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $35 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $49 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $49 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $49 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $14 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.83 · official $0.00 · 353 history records