Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd691…dc79 other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 22% −$19
politics 8% −$8
crypto 6% −$6
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage137d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $427 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $126 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $142 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $509 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $448 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $581 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $310 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $217 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $529 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $206 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $490 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $139 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $242 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $140 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $163 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $250 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 30 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 3h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 8h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 9h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $60 12h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 14h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $61 18h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $61 21h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 21h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 23h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 28h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 29h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $61 31h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $62 33h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 33h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 34h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 37h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 39h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 39h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $62 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $62 44h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.25 · official $60.25 (match) · 1342 history records