Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd68f…6917 crypto 763 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate78%594W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$18
14 days+$4
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +4.4% -5.5% 89% 51% -6.7%
≤30d 478 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 56% -12.6%
≤90d 763 -1.5% -10.9% 78% 63% -11.2%
all 763 -1.5% -10.9% 78% 63% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 63% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 38% -19.7%
15% -27.2% 17% -27.5%
20% -34.3% 4% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses594 / 169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)763 / 763
History coverage35d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 763 Trades
no open positions (156 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$4 -29%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$8 -60%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$12 +111%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +63%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $7 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $13 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $11 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $13 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $11 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.67 · official $0.00 (match) · 1611 history records