Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D6 0xd68d…56a5 sports 29 markets active 12h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$42 (+5%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$100
other 32% −$67
world 13% +$14
politics 5% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +19.2% +7.8% 50% 50% -0.7%
≤30d 24 +19.2% +7.8% 50% 50% -0.7%
≤90d 25 +16.5% +5.4% 48% 48% -4.0%
all 29 +14.4% +3.5% 48% 48% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 48% -6.2%
10% -6.4% 48% -15.2%
15% -15.5% 41% -23.4%
20% -23.8% 41% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$24 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage154d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$50 +144%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $38 +$33 +88%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 +$56 +239%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 +$37 +132%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$42 +323%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +248%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $28 +$16 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 +$35 +164%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$7 +54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $57 −$56 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 +$14 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $27 +$28 +104%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 +$20 +77%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 06 $40 −$19 -47%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 22 $15 +$26 +170%
Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 19 $26 −$26 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $29 −$29 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $53 +$18 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $1 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $35 11h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 61¢ $46 13h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $71 13h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $38 13h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $80 15h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $65 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $28 17h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $27 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $34 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $22 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $28 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $29 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $56 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $21 3d
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY Yes 44¢ $15 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $54 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records