Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd68c…098e crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$41 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%20W / 3L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$1,774per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$43
other 10% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.4%
all 23 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,196) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.33 per $1 lost it wins $28.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$3,225
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses20 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage217d
Avg bet$1,774
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,517 $2,519 +$2 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $458 $459 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $248 $248 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,159 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $3,216 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $6,420 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 29? May 29 $3,215 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 27? May 27 $3,211 +$3 +0%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $3,199 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $3,196 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Mar 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 24? Nov 25 $1,437 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 23? Nov 24 $1,436 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.40 and $2.50 on November 21? Nov 22 $1,434 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $1,433 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 19? Nov 20 $1,431 +$1 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $1,432 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 17? Nov 17 $1,432 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on November 16? Nov 17 $1,430 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Nov 16 $1,428 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 14? Nov 15 $1,426 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 13? Nov 14 $1,426 +$1 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 12? Nov 13 $1,341 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $458 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $248 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,517 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3,152 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $3,216 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $324 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $2,667 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $225 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3,218 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $3,215 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,211 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $3,211 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $790 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $995 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,417 27d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,199 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $480 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,716 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 89d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $36 204d
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,437 205d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,436 206d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.40 and $2.50 on November 21? BUY No 100¢ $1,434 208d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,433 209d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,431 210d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,431 210d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,432 211d
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,432 212d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,225.47 · official $3,225.01 (match) · 59 history records