Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd687…bbb3 crypto 1707 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$616 (-4%) realized −$608 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate66%1190W / 623L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day96.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,438
7 days−$1,441
14 days−$1,732
30 days−$2,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$469
politics 4% −$11
sports 3% −$190
other 2% −$28
world 1% −$25
tech 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% +$8
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 224 -65.8% -69.1% 24% 15% -63.9%
≤30d 1813 -10.3% -18.8% 66% 60% -20.2%
≤90d 1813 -10.3% -18.8% 66% 60% -20.2%
all 1813 -10.3% -18.8% 66% 60% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 60% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 30% -27.9%
15% -33.7% 6% -34.8%
20% -40.2% 4% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$608
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1190 / 623
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions38
Markets (closed)1813 / 1707
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day96.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 1813 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 84¢ 89¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 96¢ 93¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 91¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+10%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 80¢ 82¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? Yes 89¢ 82¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 84¢ 96¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.? No 60¢ 66¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 74¢ 98¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 81¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 72¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 97¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 462 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? BUY No 11¢ $2 1m
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? SELL No 11¢ $2 28m
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? BUY No 13¢ $3 33m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 82¢ $41 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 83¢ $42 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 51¢ $25 3h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 52¢ $26 3h
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 7h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 7h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 51¢ $25 8h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 8h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 52¢ $0 8h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 8h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 52¢ $26 8h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 8h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 8h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 9h
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? SELL Yes 87¢ $17 9h
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 9h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL No 10¢ $5 14h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 12¢ $6 15h
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY No 12¢ $0 15h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 15h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 16h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 17h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 16¢ $8 17h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 17h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 17¢ $8 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.68 · official $237.78 (match) · 3500 history records