Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd687…a024 sports 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$124 (+3%) realized +$114 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%110W / 112L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$16
14 days+$81
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$216
other 22% −$118
weather 1% −$7
crypto 1% −$8
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +2.7% -7.1% 48% 48% -11.7%
≤30d 155 +13.5% +2.7% 53% 52% -4.7%
≤90d 200 +8.7% -1.7% 50% 49% -7.7%
all 222 +7.5% -2.7% 50% 47% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 47% -7.9%
10% -12.0% 45% -16.7%
15% -20.5% 44% -24.7%
20% -28.3% 38% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses110 / 112
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)222 / 227
History coverage165d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 37¢ 48¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $22 +$17 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $48 −$29 -60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$17 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 −$21 -82%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 15 $56 −$36 -64%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $29 +$18 +63%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $18 +$14 +78%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $18 +$20 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $20 +$18 +89%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$11 -42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$21 +111%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$18 +89%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $16 +$14 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$14 -68%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $26 +$22 +84%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $20 +$24 +116%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $20 +$17 +86%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 −$1 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $10 +$7 +66%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $20 −$14 -68%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5 −$1 -13%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $24 +$17 +71%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $10 +$9 +89%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $20 +$22 +107%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $25 +$13 +52%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 08 $9 −$4 -39%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $20 +$19 +91%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $20 +$14 +71%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $30 −$27 -88%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $5 −$1 -10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $10 +$9 +86%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $39 32m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $22 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $16 34h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 48¢ $0 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $27 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 47¢ $19 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $20 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $48 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $29 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $8 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $32 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $18 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $38 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $18 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $38 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 37¢ $15 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.72 · official $44.73 (match) · 531 history records