Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd686…6a9b sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-19%) realized −$20 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$13
other 29% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -57.8% -61.9% 20% 20% -39.1%
≤30d 5 -57.8% -61.9% 20% 20% -39.1%
≤90d 5 -57.8% -61.9% 20% 20% -39.1%
all 5 -57.8% -61.9% 20% 20% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.9% 20% -39.1%
10% -65.5% 0% -44.9%
15% -68.8% 0% -50.2%
20% -71.9% 0% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 70¢ 56¢ $49 $39 −$10 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $49 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Under 55¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 94¢ $58 25h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $50 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.25 · official $55.25 (match) · 11 history records