Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd684…230a crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-8%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.1% -16.0% 91% 0% -16.7%
≤30d 11 -7.1% -16.0% 91% 0% -16.7%
≤90d 11 -7.1% -16.0% 91% 0% -16.7%
all 11 -7.1% -16.0% 91% 0% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -16.7%
10% -24.0% 0% -24.7%
15% -31.3% 0% -32.0%
20% -38.1% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records