Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd681…d9df crypto 1064 markets active 12h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$142 (-0%) realized −$143 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate77%822W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$246
14 days−$227
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$394
weather 15% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -15.4% -23.4% 73% 60% -17.5%
≤30d 309 -3.4% -12.6% 83% 53% -11.8%
≤90d 570 -2.1% -11.4% 84% 49% -10.8%
all 1067 -2.2% -11.5% 77% 57% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 57% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 29% -19.8%
15% -27.7% 14% -27.6%
20% -34.8% 7% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$30 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses822 / 245
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1067 / 1064
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1067 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 20? No 91¢ 99¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? No 91¢ 98¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? No 91¢ 83¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? No 86¢ 74¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? No 86¢ 100¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$21 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$42 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$44 -525%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$16 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$7 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $14 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$5 +12%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $33 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $50 14h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $46 16h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $50 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $21 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $9 33h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $50 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $43 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $28 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $17 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $36 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.49 · official $332.22 (match) · 3500 history records