Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd680…0376 crypto 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate73%138W / 52L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day98.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$115
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -2.0% -11.3% 84% 83% -8.0%
≤30d 190 -7.6% -16.4% 73% 71% -9.2%
≤90d 190 -7.6% -16.4% 73% 71% -9.2%
all 190 -7.6% -16.4% 73% 71% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 71% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 4% -17.9%
15% -31.7% 3% -25.8%
20% -38.4% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses138 / 52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)190 / 192
History coverage11d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day98.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 66¢ 64¢ $171 $164 −$7 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $45 +$45 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $313 −$181 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $81 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $136 +$37 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $261 +$129 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $323 +$67 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $81 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $87 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $44 +$53 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $258 −$69 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $87 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $87 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $138 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $110 −$78 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $222 +$48 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $153 −$63 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$6 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $17 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $17 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $58 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $85 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $38 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $69 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $126 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $18 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $17 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.27 · official $214.43 · 1256 history records