Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D6 0xd67a…0473 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$5
politics 20% −$4
culture 15% −$2
world 2% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 22 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,248) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage85d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 18 $1,278 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 17 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,400 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 17 $4 $0 -11%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $15 $0 -3%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Apr 13 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $138 $0 -0%
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $24 $0 -0%
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? Mar 29 $87 $0 -0%
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March Mar 29 $63 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $28 $0 -0%
Military action against Iran ends on March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $69 46m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,246 54m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,218 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $248 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $980 2h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $353 2h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,335 2h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 16h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,301 16h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $17 17h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,289 17h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 17h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,399 17h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 17h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,364 17h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $14 17h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $937 18h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $378 18h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 18h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,318 18h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 61d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 61d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $4 61d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $4 61d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $14 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records