Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd677…a495 world 254 markets active 5h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,697 (-7%) realized −$8,525 · open +$828
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate36%87W / 158L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$794
7 days−$427
14 days−$98
30 days−$641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1,298
finance 38% −$7,766
crypto 4% −$2,165
other 1% +$499
politics 1% +$325
tech 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -10.1% -18.6% 53% 40% -14.4%
≤30d 44 -12.9% -21.2% 57% 36% -12.0%
≤90d 181 -34.0% -40.3% 36% 26% -17.7%
all 245 -33.9% -40.2% 36% 26% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 26% -16.3%
10% -45.9% 18% -24.3%
15% -51.2% 14% -31.6%
20% -55.9% 11% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -39% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$140 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$2,378
Realized−$8,525
Unrealized+$828
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses87 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)245 / 254
History coverage136d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 83¢ $644 $689 +$45 (+7%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 21¢ 73¢ $197 $686 +$489 (+247%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 91¢ $379 $460 +$81 (+21%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 35¢ 43¢ $124 $150 +$26 (+21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 29¢ 79¢ $48 $130 +$82 (+173%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 20¢ 33¢ $68 $114 +$46 (+67%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 31¢ 60¢ $40 $79 +$39 (+97%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 28¢ 62¢ $20 $44 +$24 (+122%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? No 41¢ 36¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $250 −$9 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,251 −$787 -35%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $122 +$74 +61%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $440 +$77 +18%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 14 $50 +$6 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 14 $115 +$28 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 14 $529 +$363 +68%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 14 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $201 +$120 +60%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $185 −$183 -99%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $204 −$186 -91%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $278 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +110%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $60 +$9 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$12 -62%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $751 +$34 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 11 $145 −$5 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $20 +$10 +50%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $2,031 +$42 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $110 +$8 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5,360 +$257 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $4,385 +$64 +2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 01 $102 −$89 -87%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $368 −$368 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $199 −$199 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $615 +$148 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $100 +$39 +39%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2,418 +$213 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 31 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $199 +$71 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 31 $1,236 −$387 -31%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $100 +$27 +27%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 13 $993 +$116 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump say "Social Security" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1? May 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 67¢ $42 4h
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 93¢ $42 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 78¢ $118 44h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 61¢ $118 44h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 75¢ $196 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $196 46h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 72¢ $65 2d
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? SELL No 85¢ $65 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $196 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 79¢ $196 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $448 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $447 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $413 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $57 2d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 SELL No 77¢ $56 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $532 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $143 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 84¢ $389 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $357 2d
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 81¢ $36 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 87¢ $321 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $71 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $70 2d
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? SELL No 0¢ $2 2d
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY No 22¢ $18 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 77¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,377.94 · official $2,377.94 (match) · 1174 history records