Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd677…aa0e
world · 260 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$57 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open −$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$140
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses118 / 138
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)256 / 260
History coverage384d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 4 History 256 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$74
14 days+$63
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 76¢ $92 $81 −$10 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 46¢ $46 $25 −$21 (-45%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 89¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? No 20¢ 18¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? No 79¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? Yes 81¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30? Yes 43¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? No 82¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Yes 10¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? No 72¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? No 46¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? Yes 64¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Yes 61¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? No $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Yes 10¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 13 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 13 $30 −$9 -30%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -77%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +103%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $16 +$28 +177%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $13 +$4 +32%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $31 +$7 +22%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +32%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +27%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $10 −$5 -49%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $36 +$3 +8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $8 −$2 -31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $12 +$9 +73%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $23 −$2 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $29 +$16 +56%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $21 −$14 -67%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -94%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $5 +$17 +334%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 01 $15 −$5 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$7 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $51 +$21 +42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $45 −$37 -83%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $43 +$15 +35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? May 29 $44 +$5 +11%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 28 $12 −$5 -42%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? May 28 $15 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $78 +$15 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $13 −$5 -36%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $17 +$6 +32%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $15 +$3 +19%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 23 $14 +$4 +30%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 22 $68 +$7 +10%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 22 $23 −$1 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $13 +$5 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$36
other 23% −$10
tech 16% +$124
finance 5% −$63
sports 5% −$43
crypto 4% −$22
politics 1% −$9
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $43 1h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL Yes $3 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 19h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 72¢ $10 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 21h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 89¢ $44 21h
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 34¢ $5 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 22h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 22h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 99¢ $38 23h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL No 99¢ $20 25h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Up 75¢ $30 27h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 81¢ $4 28h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 81¢ $27 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $51 28h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 75¢ $15 29h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 16¢ $2 29h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 30h
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $6 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $6 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 82¢ $39 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $21 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $46 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +4.8% -5.2% 61% 57% +6.1%
≤30d 55 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 49% -2.6%
≤90d 167 -38.8% -44.7% 32% 30% -31.0%
all 256 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 43% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 43% -9.8%
10% -26.0% 34% -18.4%
15% -33.1% 27% -26.3%
20% -39.7% 21% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.74 · official $139.74 (match) · 869 history records