Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd675…5cde other 248 markets active 23h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$402 (-1%) realized −$976 · open +$574
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%57W / 190L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$1,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$241
7 days−$1,466
14 days−$1,488
30 days+$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$344
sports 4% −$514
world 3% −$121
politics 2% −$548
crypto 1% −$127
economics 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -48.4% -53.3% 14% 14% -36.9%
≤30d 25 -6.3% -15.2% 28% 28% -4.6%
≤90d 178 -42.1% -47.6% 19% 17% -14.1%
all 247 -33.1% -39.5% 23% 20% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 20% -13.3%
10% -45.3% 17% -21.6%
15% -50.6% 15% -29.1%
20% -55.4% 11% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -34% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$56 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1,023
Realized−$976
Unrealized+$574
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses57 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage144d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 43¢ 98¢ $449 $1,023 +$574 (+128%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $135 −$131 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $197 −$43 -22%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $63 −$37 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 15 $560 +$131 +24%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 14 $573 −$424 -74%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $121 −$107 -88%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $424 +$457 +108%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $401 −$389 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $252 −$242 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $88 −$65 -74%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,609 −$509 -32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $333 −$42 -12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 −$34 -51%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 07 $347 +$160 +46%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $244 −$182 -75%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $124 −$75 -61%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 03 $1,607 +$944 +59%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $211 −$8 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 01 $837 −$630 -75%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $690 −$49 -7%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $163 +$111 +68%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $213 −$46 -21%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 23 $3,200 +$1,625 +51%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 May 21 $55 +$294 +538%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 May 19 $377 −$369 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 May 19 $104 −$95 -92%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 42 and 44 million views on day 2 May 18 $647 +$72 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 18 $583 +$160 +28%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $180 +$320 +178%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? May 14 $44 −$42 -96%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week? May 11 $132 −$40 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $231 −$9 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $139 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 09 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 09 $259 −$45 -17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 09 $1,093 +$173 +16%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 05 $40 −$4 -9%
Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3? May 05 $3 −$3 -93%
Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3? May 05 $57 −$56 -98%
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? May 05 $306 +$117 +38%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $165 −$17 -10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $442 +$396 +90%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 03 $121 −$120 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 May 02 $37 −$35 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? May 02 $19 −$18 -95%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 02 $34 −$32 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $966 −$115 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY No 34¢ $12 22h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY No 33¢ $104 22h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY No 30¢ $3 23h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY No 26¢ $16 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $154 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $197 29h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 40h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 8¢ $25 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 9¢ $46 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 5¢ $17 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 44¢ $0 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 45¢ $171 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 52¢ $50 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 42¢ $30 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 42¢ $411 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 63¢ $292 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 71¢ $149 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week SELL Yes 4¢ $46 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 1¢ $14 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 34¢ $3 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 35¢ $25 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 43¢ $368 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 11¢ $102 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 11¢ $17 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,023.40 · official $1,023.93 (match) · 1126 history records