Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd673…3af9 crypto 712 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$207 (-2%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate30%213W / 498L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$69
14 days+$67
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$352
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 448 -2.1% -11.5% 26% 2% -10.8%
≤30d 537 -3.1% -12.3% 28% 5% -10.9%
≤90d 711 +24.3% +12.5% 30% 13% -12.2%
all 711 +24.3% +12.5% 30% 13% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.5% 13% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here +1.7% 11% -20.6%
15% -8.1% 9% -28.3%
20% -17.1% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses213 / 498
Open positions1
Markets (closed)711 / 712
History coverage36d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 711 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 50¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 50¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.00 · official $45.00 (match) · 2775 history records