Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd66f…3610 crypto 826 markets active 7d ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$907 (+2%) realized +$907 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%327W / 537L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day166.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,565
other 0% −$11
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -72.2% -74.8% 10% 10% -81.8%
≤30d 864 -9.3% -18.0% 38% 37% -15.0%
≤90d 864 -9.3% -18.0% 38% 37% -15.0%
all 864 -9.3% -18.0% 38% 37% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 37% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 37% -23.1%
15% -33.0% 35% -30.5%
20% -39.5% 33% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$54 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$907
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses327 / 537
Open positions0
Markets (closed)864 / 826
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day166.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 864 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will CD Cuenca win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$17 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will América de Cali win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $35 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records