Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd66f…a19b other 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66,722 (+25%) realized +$66,373 · open +$349
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate55%86W / 70L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,662per market
Trades / day75.0pace
Fees−$399est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$2,185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$160
sports 16% +$1,254
crypto 2% +$25
world 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +5.1% -4.9% 61% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 63 +2.1% -7.6% 65% 16% -8.6%
≤90d 156 -4.6% -13.7% 55% 26% -9.2%
all 156 -4.6% -13.7% 55% 26% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 26% -9.2%
10% -22.0% 15% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -29.5% 8% -25.8%
20% -36.4% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$2,559) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
20.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$340 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2,185
Realized+$66,373
Unrealized+$349
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses86 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$399
Open positions8
Markets (closed)156 / 162
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$1,662
Trades / day75.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $829 $755 −$74 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $330 $675 +$345 (+105%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 52¢ $392 $454 +$63 (+16%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $265 $278 +$13 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,250 −$250 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,331 +$519 +22%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,033 +$35 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6,990 −$990 -14%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,941 +$305 +8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,479 +$429 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6,941 +$7 +0%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $440 +$60 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,574 −$16 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10,031 −$31 -0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $976 +$34 +4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $997 +$3 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $967 +$33 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,970 +$30 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,300 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,904 +$196 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,501 −$34 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,924 +$3 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,128 −$28 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,181 −$75 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,470 −$170 -7%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $977 +$47 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,761 +$139 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,668 +$16 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $133 −$33 -25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,975 +$25 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,005 +$75 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $980 +$20 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4,961 +$39 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $960 +$40 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,912 +$88 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,252 +$2,748 +220%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2,944 −$2,944 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,867 +$133 +5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,059 −$59 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,899 +$101 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,146 −$46 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $246 +$954 +388%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,085 −$85 -3%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $524 −$524 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2,551 −$90 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1,479 +$21 +1%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 07 $56 +$1 +2%
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $62 +$20 +32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $12,219 +$1,740 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4,256 +$660 +16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $982 −$982 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 87¢ $44 41m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $143 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $60 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $34 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $47 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 48m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 48m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $87 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $46 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 49m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 44¢ $44 52m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 44¢ $44 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,184.96 · official $2,184.96 (match) · 3500 history records