Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd66b…a35e politics 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,491 (-20%) realized −$6,505 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,695per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days−$8,760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% −$6,599
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 0% -2.0%
≤30d 6 -42.1% -47.6% 50% 17% -76.0%
≤90d 10 -20.0% -27.6% 70% 20% -28.6%
all 10 -20.0% -27.6% 70% 20% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 20% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 10% -35.5%
15% -40.9% 10% -41.7%
20% -46.7% 0% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$326 vs −$2,963 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,035
Realized−$6,505
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage78d
Avg bet$2,695
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $721 $730 +$9 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 25 $668 +$56 +8%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 12 $658 +$9 +1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $594 +$64 +11%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $4,182 −$3,091 -74%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $3,694 −$3,682 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $2,124 −$2,116 -100%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 11 $5,461 +$353 +6%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 Apr 22 $5,156 +$305 +6%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament Apr 16 $5,111 +$44 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $3,662 +$1,449 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 88¢ $724 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY No 92¢ $668 13d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $443 15d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $60 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $120 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $1 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $2 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $10 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $1 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $2 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $2 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $2 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $1 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $2 16d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $2 17d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $2 17d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $18 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $50 17d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $250 17d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 98¢ $133 20d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 98¢ $30 20d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 98¢ $49 20d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 98¢ $30 20d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 98¢ $69 20d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 98¢ $55 20d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 98¢ $294 20d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 90¢ $594 24d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 11¢ $586 24d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 56¢ $2,428 24d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 36¢ $503 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,034.76 · official $1,034.76 (match) · 96 history records