Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd668…174c sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+10%) realized +$113 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$48
14 days+$102
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$95
other 28% +$27
tech 1% −$3
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +24.7% +12.9% 71% 43% -1.1%
≤30d 42 +1.1% -8.5% 55% 40% -0.2%
≤90d 42 +1.1% -8.5% 55% 40% -0.2%
all 42 +1.1% -8.5% 55% 40% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 40% -0.2%
10% -17.3% 29% -9.7%
15% -25.3% 26% -18.5%
20% -32.6% 21% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×4.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.91 per $1 lost it wins $4.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$113
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage17d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 26¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$2 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $184 +$18 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $186 +$19 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1 +$2 +188%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $177 +$16 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $7 +$3 +37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3 −$2 -84%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$2 -81%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $170 +$23 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +874%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$6 +116%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $23 +$16 +69%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 30? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +27%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $116 +$14 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $99 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $184 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 5¢ $0 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $174 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 21¢ $1 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $10 35h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 34¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $2 3d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $1 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $1 7d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $1 7d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 36¢ $2 7d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 22¢ $1 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $2 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $184 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 94¢ $175 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 95¢ $9 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $1 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 24¢ $1 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 18¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.96 · official $2.96 (match) · 101 history records