Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D6 0xd668…2235 sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$141 (-1%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%32W / 55L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$116
14 days−$116
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$32
other 45% −$21
sports 4% +$9
world 3% −$114
crypto 0% −$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.4% -28.9% 20% 0% -35.1%
≤30d 13 -10.1% -18.6% 8% 0% -18.3%
≤90d 46 +8.9% -1.4% 37% 30% -10.1%
all 87 -4.1% -13.2% 37% 32% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 32% -10.3%
10% -21.5% 31% -18.9%
15% -29.1% 26% -26.7%
20% -36.1% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses32 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage223d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $106 +$8 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $75 −$10 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $115 −$112 -98%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $67 −$3 -4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $443 −$13 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $447 −$8 -2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $60 −$9 -15%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $64 $0 -1%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 30 $28 +$27 +97%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 30 $27 +$28 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 30 $28 +$28 +101%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $320 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $320 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 22 $320 −$8 -3%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 21 $11 +$7 +62%
Stars vs. Maple Leafs Apr 21 $12 +$8 +61%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 07 $1,062 +$10 +1%
Kraken vs. Jets Apr 07 $12 +$8 +61%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $12 −$12 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 06 $11 −$10 -99%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Apr 06 $9 +$3 +33%
Bulls vs. 76ers Apr 06 $9 +$4 +45%
Will Moldova win on 2026-03-26? Apr 06 $10 +$4 +45%
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Mar 25 $9 +$4 +49%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $25 −$3 -13%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 19 $10 +$5 +45%
National Cricket League, Women: South Australian Scorpions vs New Sout Mar 19 $10 +$6 +59%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 19 $21 +$27 +133%
Capitals vs. Flyers Mar 13 $7 +$8 +113%
Counter-Strike: Morningstar vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Asia Championships Mar 13 $16 +$4 +28%
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Mar 13 $19 +$6 +31%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 11 $8 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $36 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $49 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $40 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $63 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $56 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $67 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $10 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $5 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $20 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $2 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $6 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records