Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd666…7d89 crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$375 (-30%) realized −$375 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day80.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -39.9%
≤30d 6 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -39.9%
≤90d 6 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -39.9%
all 6 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 50% -39.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 50% -45.7%
15% -29.3% 50% -50.9%
20% -36.2% 50% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$277 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$375
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $605 −$605 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $298 +$306 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $77 +$72 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $43 +$33 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $81 −$78 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $604 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records