Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D6 0xd663…5624 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$14 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$10
sports 43% +$25
crypto 9% −$4
politics 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +42.8% +29.2% 40% 40% +6.1%
≤30d 30 +13.8% +2.9% 33% 30% -2.8%
≤90d 30 +13.8% +2.9% 33% 30% -2.8%
all 30 +13.8% +2.9% 33% 30% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 30% -2.8%
10% -6.9% 30% -12.1%
15% -15.9% 27% -20.6%
20% -24.1% 17% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $37 $34 −$4 (-10%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 40¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Makarska: Miriam Bulgaru vs Noma Noha Akugue Miriam Bulgaru $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 23¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -64%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$11 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $11 $0 -3%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $2 $0 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $15 −$15 -98%
ITF Luan: Yaojie Zeng vs Minghui Zhang Jun 03 $5 −$3 -54%
ITF Wuning: Chenting Zhu vs Reina Goto Jun 03 $5 −$1 -10%
ITF Wuning: Wushuang Zheng vs JiaYi Wang Jun 03 $5 $0 -8%
ITF Harmon: Riku Takahata vs Youssef Kadiri Hassani Jun 03 $5 −$5 -88%
ITF Wuning: Yanan Hou vs Kyoka Okamura Jun 03 $19 +$18 +95%
ITF Harmon: Matt Kleiman vs Ryo Minakata Jun 03 $2 $0 -13%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 03 $5 $0 -10%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 03 $2 $0 -10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $3 $0 +3%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 02 $3 +$1 +35%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $2 +$1 +50%
Makarska: Miriam Bulgaru vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 02 $2 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 35m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $16 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 19h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 19h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 28h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 30h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 35¢ $5 30h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $5 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Thijs Boogaard 20¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 13¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 5d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 67¢ $11 10d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 76¢ $2 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 26¢ $5 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.59 · official $33.59 (match) · 68 history records