Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd661…0d4e other 316 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 144d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,709 (+4%) realized +$2,713 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate51%160W / 155L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days−$416
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$2,731
crypto 19% +$65
politics 2% −$621
world 0% +$6
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.5% -28.1% 71% 29% -6.0%
≤30d 37 -42.6% -48.0% 41% 22% -12.6%
≤90d 140 -24.1% -31.3% 54% 23% -7.8%
all 315 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 24% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 24% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 19% -15.8%
15% -24.6% 15% -23.9%
20% -32.0% 12% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$33 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$2,713
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses160 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)315 / 316
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$204
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 24¢ 16¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $464 +$72 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $447 +$153 +34%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $171 −$168 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $488 +$13 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +44%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $322 +$26 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $802 +$41 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $209 −$174 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $1,197 −$264 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$5 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $120 −$65 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $367 +$29 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $243 +$57 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $247 +$45 +18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $832 −$30 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $111 +$64 +58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $932 −$25 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 28 $65 +$38 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1,148 −$4 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $132 +$103 +78%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $694 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $15 +$36 +246%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $424 +$205 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $345 +$11 +3%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $91 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $61 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $13 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $80 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $24 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $8 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $31 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $91 16h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $15 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $21 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $29 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $2 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $43 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $71 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $19 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $13 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $73 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $37 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $47 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $102 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $36 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $97 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $33 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $58 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $58 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $58 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.32 · official $9.09 (match) · 3500 history records