Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd661…2750 weather 511 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,883 (+11%) realized +$3,880 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%177W / 333L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day75.7pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$101
sports 17% +$682
other 2% −$209
crypto 0% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -4.1% -13.3% 38% 35% -2.3%
≤30d 373 +2.3% -7.4% 34% 31% -12.3%
≤90d 510 +0.2% -9.4% 35% 31% -8.9%
all 510 +0.2% -9.4% 35% 31% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 31% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 28% -17.6%
15% -25.9% 25% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$42 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$3,880
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses177 / 333
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions1
Markets (closed)510 / 511
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day75.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $8 $10 +$3 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $54 −$14 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $28 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $82 +$14 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $52 +$43 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$15 -28%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $439 +$49 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $78 −$59 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$8 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 +$45 +64%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 −$38 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $140 −$82 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $36 −$4 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$31 +203%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$28 +183%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$39 +390%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $536 +$1,224 +228%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +46%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$51 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$12 -79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $27 +$23 +86%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $56 +$68 +122%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$73 +276%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$77 +329%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $55 +$21 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$16 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $40 52m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL Yes 10¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $81 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 SELL Yes 14¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $96 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 70¢ $95 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 39¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $57 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.49 · official $10.49 (match) · 3500 history records