Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd660…6cd0 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate88%28W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$393per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$7
crypto 25% +$3
other 10% −$42
tech 9% +$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 -17.9% -25.8% 82% 0% -11.1%
all 32 -6.0% -15.0% 88% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 3% -9.8%
10% -23.1% 3% -18.5%
15% -30.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -37.4% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$733) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$31 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses28 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage193d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $235 $235 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in May? Jun 01 $235 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $235 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 07 $234 +$1 +0%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $233 +$1 +1%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $232 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 16 $232 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Apr 13 $232 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $232 $0 +0%
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Mar 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Magic vs. Raptors Mar 31 $229 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $229 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 12 $926 +$3 +0%
Pistons vs. Nets Mar 11 $925 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 09 $918 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $917 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 4? Mar 05 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 4? Mar 05 $733 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $915 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $1.50? Feb 21 $64 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $2.00? Feb 21 $377 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $2.50? Feb 21 $473 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 10 $905 +$9 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jan 22 $100 −$52 -52%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jan 22 $83 +$46 +56%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 22 $634 −$29 -5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 12 above $165? Jan 17 $983 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $47 $0 +0%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $492 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $318 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $319 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $235 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $315 in May? BUY No 100¢ $235 31d
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $235 45d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $234 57d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 99¢ $233 59d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $232 65d
Nets vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 100¢ $232 73d
Mavericks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $232 75d
Timberwolves vs. Magic BUY Magic 100¢ $232 77d
Magic vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 99¢ $229 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $229 94d
Rockets vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $926 105d
Pistons vs. Nets BUY Pistons 100¢ $925 106d
Knicks vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 100¢ $724 108d
Knicks vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 97¢ $194 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $917 112d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $733 115d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $183 115d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 100¢ $915 117d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $2.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $473 126d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $2.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $377 126d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $1.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 126d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 99¢ $905 135d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 100¢ $200 153d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 99¢ $400 153d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Team WE 60¢ $34 153d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 72¢ $0 154d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 72¢ $24 154d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 72¢ $38 154d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 48¢ $20 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.14 · official $235.14 (match) · 73 history records