Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd65f…a4e4 sports 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$148 (+16%) realized +$174 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%45W / 50L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$148
14 days+$152
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -9.3% -17.9% 45% 40% +11.2%
≤30d 95 -8.3% -17.0% 47% 41% +6.6%
≤90d 95 -8.3% -17.0% 47% 41% +6.6%
all 95 -8.3% -17.0% 47% 41% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 41% +6.6%
10% -25.0% 35% -3.6%
15% -32.2% 26% -12.9%
20% -38.9% 25% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$174
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses45 / 50
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Tarvet (+1.5) Tarvet 45¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs SINQU Rehti - Map 1 Winner SINQU Rehti 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tirante vs. Marozsan: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 29 $32 +$7 +21%
Quinn vs. Darderi: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 29 $35 +$7 +20%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $93 +$25 +27%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $39 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Leo Team (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Gro Jun 28 $8 −$8 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $62 +$43 +70%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 27 $60 +$42 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G Jun 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 26 $17 +$8 +48%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 26 $30 +$22 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $35 +$23 +64%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $3 +$14 +442%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $14 +$16 +114%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $21 +$5 +26%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 26 $18 +$34 +188%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $19 +$1 +7%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 25 $10 −$4 -39%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $6 $0 +6%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$6 -65%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $6 +$11 +165%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $6 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $10 −$9 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $8 $0 -1%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $5 +$7 +134%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Targu Mures: Miguel Tobon vs Martin Krumich Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $6 −$3 -41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $3 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $3 −$1 -29%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $4 +$1 +32%
Map Handicap: LILMIX (-1.5) vs ReThink (+1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $4 −$2 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tirante vs. Marozsan: Match O/U 36.5 SELL Under 100¢ $39 23m
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Tarvet (+1.5) BUY Tarvet 45¢ $24 47m
Tirante vs. Marozsan: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Under 82¢ $32 55m
Quinn vs. Darderi: Match O/U 38.5 SELL Under 100¢ $42 58m
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $86 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs SINQU Rehti - Map 1 Winner BUY SINQU Rehti 18¢ $2 1h
Quinn vs. Darderi: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Under 83¢ $35 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 75¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 71¢ $31 2h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 72¢ $31 2h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 72¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner SELL Just Players 50¢ $37 3h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Atreides - Map 2 Winner BUY Just Players 51¢ $39 3h
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Blitzkrieg - Map 1 Winner BUY Blitzkrieg 6¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Leo Team (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Gro BUY GAMEHARMONY 14¢ $4 27h
Counter-Strike: GAMEHARMONY vs Leo Team (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Gro BUY GAMEHARMONY 13¢ $4 27h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 40h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $62 40h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL MASQ 100¢ $102 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 58¢ $60 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $4 2d
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G BUY Pigeons 43¢ $30 2d
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage SELL SaD Esports 100¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl SELL MIBR fe 100¢ $51 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $4 2d
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY SaD Esports 67¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 57¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $57 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $27.32 · 214 history records