Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd65e…ffb0
crypto · 413 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,228 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,228 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses163 / 250
Open positions0
Markets (closed)413 / 413
History coverage225d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 413 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$7 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$7 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 07 $7 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6AM ET Jun 07 $7 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$1,207
other 1% −$19
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -21.3% -28.8% 29% 27% -34.3%
≤30d 228 -12.9% -21.2% 39% 33% -20.7%
≤90d 310 -10.1% -18.6% 34% 28% -40.3%
all 413 -1.5% -10.9% 39% 33% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 33% -19.4%
10% -19.4% 26% -27.1%
15% -27.2% 20% -34.2%
20% -34.3% 16% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2212 history records