Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

D6 0xd658…3b4c sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$177 (-23%) realized −$176 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$76per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-36.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	7	-29.5%	-36.2%	43%	14%	-33.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.2%	14%	-33.4%
10%	-42.3%	14%	-39.7%
15%	-47.9%	14%	-45.6%
20%	-53.0%	14%	-50.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 91% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$75 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage

Net worth$81

Realized−$176

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage145d

Avg bet$76

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$43	$43	−$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$22	$22	−$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$17	$16	−$0 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Jan 29	$188	−$188	-100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	Jan 29	$185	+$3	+1%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance	Jan 28	$80	−$80	-100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	Jan 28	$30	−$30	-100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Jan 28	$60	+$111	+186%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	Jan 26	$128	+$8	+7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Jan 24	$2	−$2	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$22	59m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$17	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$44	1h
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY JD Gaming	54¢	$188	138d
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	BUY LNG Esports	99¢	$185	139d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance	BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas	45¢	$80	139d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	BUY Ultra Prime	38¢	$30	139d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY JD Gaming	35¢	$60	141d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	BUY Yes	92¢	$50	143d
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	BUY Top Esports	3¢	$2	143d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	BUY Yes	95¢	$78	144d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.90 · official $80.91 (match) · 14 history records