Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd656…0382 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-29%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$69
sports 38% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -41.3% -46.9% 43% 29% -24.1%
≤30d 9 -54.3% -58.7% 33% 22% -39.2%
≤90d 9 -54.3% -58.7% 33% 22% -39.2%
all 9 -54.3% -58.7% 33% 22% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.7% 22% -39.2%
10% -62.6% 11% -45.1%
15% -66.3% 11% -50.4%
20% -69.6% 0% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage7d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $46 +$5 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $66 +$24 +36%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$12 -80%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$23 -75%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $51 36m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 84¢ $46 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $15 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 7d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 83¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.35 · official $49.35 (match) · 17 history records