Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd654…3e02 crypto 72 markets active 6h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-6%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$3
sports 32% −$7
other 17% −$7
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 46% -21.2%
≤30d 71 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 46% -21.2%
≤90d 71 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 46% -21.2%
all 71 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 46% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 46% -21.2%
10% -28.0% 42% -28.8%
15% -35.0% 41% -35.6%
20% -41.3% 31% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage110d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.28 · official $10.28 (match) · 158 history records