Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd654…0a18
sports · 591 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$58 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$45
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses339 / 241
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions11
Markets (closed)580 / 591
Avg bet$10
Trades / day80.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 11 History 580 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$221
14 days−$69
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate Primary by less than 10%? No 95¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 83¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 84¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? No 89¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? No 82¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? No 81¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 47¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? No 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -47%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 +$2 +64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $1 $0 -45%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$3 +197%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $3 +$2 +97%
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 11 $9 $0 -3%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +74%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $12 $0 -4%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $13 −$3 -20%
Will Norrby IF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 $0 -2%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $9 $0 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $11 +$3 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 09 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $267 −$8 -3%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 09 $15 $0 -3%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 09 $13 −$8 -64%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $45 −$19 -43%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 9? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 $0 -2%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 09 $27 −$1 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$2 -28%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 09 $5 −$2 -37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $5 $0 -3%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 38% −$100
other 27% +$11
crypto 26% +$37
politics 3% +$1
weather 2% −$4
world 1% +$3
finance 1% −$3
tech 1% +$2
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $4 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 14¢ $2 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 8h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $5 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10h
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 31¢ $2 11h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $3 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 5¢ $0 13h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $2 15h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $2 15h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 6¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $2 17h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $5 18h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 50¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL FUT Esports 5¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 6¢ $1 21h
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 23h
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 31h
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $5 31h
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 31h
Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? BUY No 95¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -15.4% -23.5% 44% 23% -15.4%
≤30d 580 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 26% -10.5%
≤90d 580 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 26% -10.5%
all 580 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 26% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover80.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 26% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 13% -19.1%
15% -27.9% 6% -26.9%
20% -35.0% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.36 · official $45.36 (match) · 2394 history records