Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D6 0xd653…f5e7 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$63 (+1%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$360
7 days−$360
14 days−$360
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$309
sports 9% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -30.1% -36.7% 42% 32% -15.6%
≤30d 19 -30.1% -36.7% 42% 32% -15.6%
≤90d 19 -30.1% -36.7% 42% 32% -15.6%
all 35 -18.7% -26.4% 54% 43% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 43% -9.7%
10% -33.5% 31% -18.3%
15% -39.9% 17% -26.2%
20% -45.8% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$57 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage116d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $225 −$191 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $291 +$71 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$38 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $125 +$34 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $309 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $432 −$152 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $202 −$70 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $138 −$18 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$44 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$39 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$26 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 16 $39 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 07 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 03 $662 +$149 +22%
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South Ameri Mar 03 $401 +$62 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 03 $347 +$53 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 03 $347 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 03 $228 +$120 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Feb 21 $67 −$64 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 21 $45 +$23 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Feb 21 $36 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Feb 21 $35 +$2 +4%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 21 $19 +$16 +85%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs DEPO (BO1) - META Cup Group A Feb 21 $19 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs SkinRave (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North Am Feb 21 $16 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North Feb 21 $13 +$3 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $162 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records