Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd653…ad0f sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$502 (-4%) realized −$520 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate73%99W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$10
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$263
other 49% −$324
crypto 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.6% -20.9% 67% 56% -7.2%
≤30d 12 -3.6% -12.8% 75% 58% +1.0%
≤90d 126 -4.1% -13.3% 71% 59% -14.3%
all 136 -3.2% -12.4% 73% 60% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 60% -13.8%
10% -20.8% 39% -22.1%
15% -28.4% 25% -29.6%
20% -35.4% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$86 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$520
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses99 / 37
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage92d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $61 +$49 +80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $60 +$21 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 10 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $102 +$47 +46%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $100 +$90 +90%
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $200 +$83 +42%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $100 +$76 +76%
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 18 $100 +$57 +57%
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils Apr 18 $100 +$67 +67%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Liudmila Samsonova vs Coco Gauff Apr 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima Apr 17 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $400 +$36 +9%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $400 +$201 +50%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $100 +$31 +31%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $200 +$61 +31%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $200 +$72 +36%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $140 +$141 +101%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $791 −$791 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Apr 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 11 $372 +$68 +18%
Valentin Vacherot vs. Hubert Hurkacz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Apr 10 $100 +$14 +14%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz Apr 10 $100 +$13 +13%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 09 $200 +$8 +4%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Machac vs Jannik Sinner Apr 09 $400 +$31 +8%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $200 +$172 +86%
Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Berrettini Apr 08 $100 +$24 +24%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Zverev Apr 08 $300 +$86 +29%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $100 +$86 +86%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Apr 07 $500 +$21 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 37h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 2d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 75¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $31 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 73¢ $30 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 6d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet BUY Nick Kyrgios 82¢ $101 7d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 67¢ $20 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 8d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 58d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 58d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 58d
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 58d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 59d
Barcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils BUY Arthur Fils 59¢ $100 59d
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Andrey Rublev 63¢ $100 59d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $100 59d
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $141 60d
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Lorenzo Musetti BUY Lorenzo Musetti 47¢ $100 60d
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 70¢ $100 60d
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Arthur Fils 87¢ $100 61d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Liudmila Samsonova vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 88¢ $50 61d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $300 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.59 · official $117.06 (match) · 302 history records