Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd653…f5fc crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+6%) realized +$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%47W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$13
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.2% -1.2% 60% 50% +18.6%
≤30d 27 -0.4% -9.9% 59% 44% +7.6%
≤90d 81 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 48% -7.3%
all 81 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 48% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 48% -7.3%
10% -19.4% 35% -16.2%
15% -27.2% 28% -24.3%
20% -34.3% 23% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses47 / 34
Open positions5
Markets (closed)81 / 86
History coverage84d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 55¢ 98¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+78%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? No 95¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Down 49¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Up 41¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$6 +280%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$3 +331%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 19? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 18 $4 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $2 +$3 +124%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 16 $3 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $1 +$3 +280%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? May 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? May 09 $4 +$2 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $2 +$2 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 06 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 4? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $6 +$6 +90%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 5? May 05 $13 +$3 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 9? May 04 $8 +$10 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4? May 04 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 8? May 04 $1 $0 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1 $0 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $1 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $1 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $1 39m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 55m
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 5¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 50¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 48¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 42¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 61¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 61¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 50¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.18 · official $15.18 (match) · 347 history records