Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd651…bff1 crypto 587 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$164 (-2%) realized −$154 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate75%429W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$293
14 days+$295
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$48
sports 32% +$269
other 11% −$200
weather 9% −$289
politics 2% +$16
culture 2% −$2
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.3% -9.8% 70% 57% -0.9%
≤30d 78 -2.1% -11.5% 69% 42% -5.3%
≤90d 570 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 45% -11.9%
all 570 +0.7% -8.9% 75% 45% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 45% -11.9%
10% -17.6% 23% -20.3%
15% -25.6% 12% -28.0%
20% -32.9% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses429 / 141
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions17
Markets (closed)570 / 587
History coverage55d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $171 $172 +$1 (+1%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? No 96¢ 95¢ $174 $171 −$3 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Hunter/McNally vs Dart/Lumsden Hunter/McNally 84¢ 65¢ $35 $27 −$8 (-23%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+125%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $265 +$35 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $288 +$12 +4%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $19 −$3 -14%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $271 +$29 +11%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $172 +$28 +16%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Hunter/McNally vs Dudeney/Xu Jun 17 $46 +$14 +31%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $14 +$8 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $94 +$4 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 +$12 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $37 +$6 +15%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $88 +$12 +13%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $111 +$2 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $39 +$9 +24%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $146 +$23 +16%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $135 +$16 +12%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $110 +$40 +36%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $308 +$12 +4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $261 +$48 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $227 +$33 +14%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $207 +$22 +11%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$12 -90%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $27 −$14 -50%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Jun 12 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Alisson be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $6 $0 -5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 07 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 07 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +42%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $10 +$4 +34%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 02 $11 $0 -2%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $20 +$4 +18%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $14 +$8 +56%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 01 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $4 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $6 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY No 96¢ $174 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Hunter/McNally vs Dart/Lumsden BUY Hunter/McNally 84¢ $35 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 92¢ $184 9h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 80¢ $80 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 96¢ $288 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 77¢ $23 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 75¢ $8 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 66¢ $16 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 75¢ $19 15h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 73¢ $11 15h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 90¢ $271 16h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 85¢ $172 23h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Hunter/McNally vs Dudeney/Xu BUY Hunter/McNally 76¢ $46 23h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $98 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 30h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $94 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $30 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $7 31h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 34h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 97¢ $10 34h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 98¢ $101 34h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $49 34h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 96¢ $114 36h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $31 41h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 90¢ $73 2d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 65¢ $14 2d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 88¢ $62 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 80¢ $39 2d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 73¢ $110 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.73 · official $437.09 (match) · 1448 history records