Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd64d…5583 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$14
other 22% −$17
sports 20% −$13
crypto 7% $0
economics 5% −$6
world 4% −$1
culture 3% −$8
finance 1% −$3
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 59 -0.8% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 108 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 122 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 109
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage98d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $165 −$1 -1%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $168 −$3 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $278 −$3 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 12 $59 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $622 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 09 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $62 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $103 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $42 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $57 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $188 −$3 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $86 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $58 −$1 -2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $106 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 27 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 35m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 46m
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $63 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $62 9h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $49 10h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 15h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $50 15h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $50 20h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 21h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $60 25h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $55 25h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 30h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $40 31h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $41 39h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 40h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 45h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 45h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $42 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $42 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $59 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 3d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $28 3d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $29 3d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.53 · official $28.56 (match) · 477 history records