Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd64c…db75 world 30 markets active 1d ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
tech 10% +$1
crypto 9% $0
other 8% $0
sports 7% +$2
politics 6% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.0% -20.4% 25% 12% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -8.6% -17.3% 27% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -8.6% -17.3% 27% 9% -9.5%
all 30 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 7% -9.0%
10% -23.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -31.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -37.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage473d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $64 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $32 $0 +1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $14 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 06 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 22 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 07 $20 $0 -2%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before April? Mar 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Neutral" on March 31? Mar 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $19 +$1 +4%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 22 $1 $0 -38%
San Diego vs. Washington State Mar 21 $18 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $7 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $30 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $31 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $6 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $5 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $11 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $24 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $7 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $32 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $17 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $17 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $32 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $32 8d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $2 335d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records