Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd649…76c9 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+2%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$21
politics 17% $0
other 17% +$2
crypto 8% $0
economics 7% −$1
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.2% -6.7% 33% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 14 +8.9% -1.5% 36% 21% -4.6%
≤90d 15 +8.5% -1.8% 40% 20% -4.7%
all 46 +3.2% -6.7% 33% 9% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 9% -7.4%
10% -15.6% 4% -16.3%
15% -23.8% 4% -24.4%
20% -31.2% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×8.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.86 per $1 lost it wins $6.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage297d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $41 +$18 +44%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $63 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $55 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $19 −$1 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 -10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $6 +$5 +75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $30 +$4 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $94 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 01 $8 +$1 +15%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Sep 25 $5 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $23 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 26 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $49 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $54 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 36h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $63 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $63 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $17 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $16 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $33 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 26d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 26d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.03 · official $74.82 (match) · 163 history records