Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd647…bae5 other 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%85W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$65
14 days+$112
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$73
sports 15% −$20
crypto 15% −$60
world 2% +$25
politics 2% +$100
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +43.8% +30.1% 24% 24% +16.3%
≤30d 148 +13.2% +2.4% 31% 30% +0.4%
≤90d 189 +5.0% -5.0% 31% 31% -6.7%
all 256 +4.2% -5.7% 33% 33% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 33% -11.1%
10% -14.8% 32% -19.6%
15% -23.0% 30% -27.4%
20% -30.5% 26% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses85 / 171
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)256 / 262
History coverage528d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+71%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+44%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 2 - 2 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 2 Spain? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Northern Ireland? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 2 Algeria? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Serbia? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Northern Ireland? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Honduras? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Burnley FC? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? No 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-25? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +238%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$8 +165%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 +$27 +873%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$14 +442%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 11 $3 +$17 +550%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $3 +$24 +786%
Exact Score: Bolivia 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $3 +$18 +596%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 09 $3 +$30 +980%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $3 +$34 +1116%
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 9¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 8¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 44¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 11h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 23h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 32h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.68 · official $81.68 · 395 history records