Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D6 0xd646…a6fd other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$20 (+5%) realized +$28 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip

Net edge+36%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+41.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+56.6%	+41.7%	100%	100%	+32.0%
≤30d	4	+56.6%	+41.7%	100%	100%	+32.0%
≤90d	4	+56.6%	+41.7%	100%	100%	+32.0%
all	4	+56.6%	+41.7%	100%	100%	+32.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+41.7%	100%	+32.0%
10%	+28.2%	75%	+19.4%
15%	+15.8%	75%	+7.8%
20%	+4.4%	75%	-2.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +57% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$318

Realized+$28

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions8

Markets (closed)4 / 12

History coverage2d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	81¢	81¢	$66	$66	+$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	90¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	89¢	32¢	$10	$4	−$6 (-64%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	+$12	+76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$25	+$3	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$8	+76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$66	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$31	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$50	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$20	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	56¢	$15	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$25	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$5	2d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	BUY Yes	89¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.13 · official $318.15 (match) · 16 history records