Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd642…361d world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$29
other 25% −$9
politics 6% −$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.6% -6.2% 30% 10% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +3.4% -6.5% 33% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 17 +7.0% -3.2% 41% 12% -7.2%
all 36 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 8% -8.4%
10% -18.7% 8% -17.2%
15% -26.6% 6% -25.2%
20% -33.8% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage263d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $7 +$3 +44%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $82 −$4 -6%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $95 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $71 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $89 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $13 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $135 +$9 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $120 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $85 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $77 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $30 +$24 +80%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $1 $0 +33%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $10 −$1 -10%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 07 $3 −$1 -49%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $81 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $15 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $46 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $17 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $18 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $29 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $22 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $14 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $45 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $7 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $44 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $90 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.96 · official $80.96 (match) · 210 history records