Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D6 0xd642…0710 world 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$194 (-1%) realized −$193 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%101W / 9L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$249
politics 16% +$11
economics 11% +$10
other 9% +$9
finance 6% +$23
crypto 2% +$1
weather 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 6 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 43 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 2% -8.7%
all 110 +0.5% -9.1% 92% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -10.2%
10% -17.8% 1% -18.8%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$33 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$193
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses101 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage209d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 27 $158 +$2 +1%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $139 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 08 $153 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 03 $304 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 24 $970 +$18 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump's remarks not air? May 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $274 +$1 +0%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will James Comey leave the country by May 15? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15? May 17 $6 $0 +3%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump Leave China after May 18? May 17 $7 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? May 16 $147 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 15 $16 +$16 +100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 11 $360 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 06 $174 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 02 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Mars" 2+ times during astronaut greeting? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $2,485 +$8 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Apr 19 $169 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 12 $6 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 07 $66 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $259 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 125 billion views by March 31? Apr 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31? Apr 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Yoon Suk Yeol in March? Apr 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31? Apr 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26? Mar 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 25 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 25 $99 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 22 Mar 24 $144 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Mar 20 $143 $0 +0%
Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 20 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $159 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $158 3d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 6d
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 99¢ $5 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 8d
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 15d
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $80 15d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes $3 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $149 24d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes $2 24d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $150 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes $2 27d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $149 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 99¢ $988 33d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 97¢ $970 35d
Will Trump's remarks not air? SELL Yes $0 36d
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY Yes $0 36d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 36d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 40d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $148 42d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 43d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $4 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.93 · official $26.93 (match) · 441 history records