Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D6 0xd641…ee63 other 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 188d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$56
economics 13% +$6
politics 6% $0
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.9% -28.5% 50% 50% -18.6%
≤30d 7 -14.8% -22.9% 57% 57% -18.1%
≤90d 7 -14.8% -22.9% 57% 57% -18.1%
all 9 -10.8% -19.3% 67% 44% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 44% -15.6%
10% -27.0% 33% -23.7%
15% -34.1% 22% -31.1%
20% -40.5% 11% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$81 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage188d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 +$51 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $106 +$98 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $111 +$36 +32%
Seahawks vs. Patriots May 21 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 11 $45 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $96 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $106 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $105 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $106 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $111 5d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 82¢ $9 127d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 175d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $96 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records