Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd63f…d17b other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$117 (+1%) realized +$115 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate30%20W / 47L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$13
other 16% +$38
politics 13% −$7
sports 2% +$96
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +4.8% -5.2% 18% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 49 +1.9% -7.8% 24% 16% -10.0%
all 67 +6.1% -4.0% 30% 18% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 18% -9.0%
10% -13.2% 18% -17.7%
15% -21.6% 18% -25.7%
20% -29.3% 13% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×4.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses20 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage610d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 51¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $123 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $214 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $8 +$7 +83%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $44 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $229 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $222 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $196 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $194 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $191 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $203 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $204 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 23 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $197 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $12 +$8 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 +$13 +165%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $10 +$7 +75%
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Apr 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $16 +$7 +42%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 03 $24 +$19 +82%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 24? Mar 30 $24 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei Mar 30 $24 +$22 +92%
Kraken vs. Panthers Mar 30 $30 +$24 +82%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Mar 17 $23 +$9 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $27 34m
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $8 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $117 5d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $8 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 17d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 17d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 19d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.33 · official $187.33 (match) · 287 history records